Farmers Loop, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

641
FXAK69 PAFG 101132
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
232 AM AKST Sun Nov 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
For this rendition of the discussion, let`s start with something
that we`re all getting used to, a 1029 mb high at around 80N.
This is staying nearly stationary through early next week, then
gradually moving northwest and strengthening to 1034 mb by Friday.
This high has been the culprit for wind along the Arctic Coast
and it will continue with pulses of 15-30 mph winds from Utqiagvik
east and around 25-35 mph in Point Lay. There will also be sea
effect snow which will continue at times along the coast through
at least Tuesday. Temperatures will be dropping for the next few
days as cold air moves in, and there will be chances for a bit
more active weather next week. This includes light snow chances in
the Interior and Bering Sea lows bringing fronts into the West
Coast. The other story is, where we have clear skies, it will be
cold with temperatures well below 0 in some spots.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- The main story this week will be cold temperatures. Highs in
  the Interior will be in the single digits to about 10 degrees
  with lows around -5 to -15 with some of the typically colder
  spots around -20 under periods of clear skies.
- Light snow will develops tonight in the SE Interior and spreads
  towards Fairbanks Monday afternoon.
- Light snow continues at times through Tuesday, as far west as
  Tanana and south to Lake Minchumina. Light, fluffy snow may
  accumulate up to a few inches over a few days, especially from
  Fairbanks east.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Persistent wind gusts to 15-30 mph from the east/northeast along
  the Arctic Coast from Utqiagvik east, with 25-35 mph winds near
  Point Lay.
- Several sea effect snow bands will bring light snow to coastal
  spots, especially from Utqiagvik to Deadhorse with 1-3 inches of
  snow likely through Monday night. Spots with the most persistent
  snow may see up to 4 inches.
- A cooling trend to below normal temperatures is ongoing and will
  continue through the week.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- A quiet day today with chilly temperatures across the area.
  Below normal temperatures continue this week.
- A weak front will bring light snow chances from the Norton Sound
  to the Seward Peninsula beginning Monday morning. Snowfall
  totals will be minimal, a half inch or less in most spots.
- A second front will bring light snow to St. Lawrence Island
  Monday afternoon into the overnight with 0.5-1 inch expected.
- Another round of snow Tuesday night - Wednesday in St. Lawrence
  Island, another 0.5-2 inches is possible.

The colder weather has arrived and will remain in place this week.
A high to the north which has provided persistent breezes to the
Arctic Coast has picked up some moisture from a low over the
Canadian Archipelago and is providing sea effect snow to portions
of the Arctic Coast. Snow will continue at times through at least
Tuesday, especially around Deadhorse. Wind gusts to 30 mph may
lead to some blowing snow with visibility down to 1 mile at times.
Farther south in the Interior, we will be monitoring snow as well.
This is coming from a low in the Gulf of Alaska pushing a front
north into the Yukon. This will bring moist, easterly flow to the
Interior. Snow will begin in Northway tonight and will be
light/fluffy. This will gradually spread north through Monday with
light snow developing in the afternoon around Fairbanks. There is
a chance for snow as far south as Lake Minchumina and west to
Tanana Monday night, though accumulations become less likely
there. With a persistent moisture feed from the east, light snow
is expected through Tuesday. Then on Wednesday, the flow turns
west/southwest with a subtle influx of moisture from a front over
the Western Interior, this may prolong light snow chances in the
Interior.

Otherwise, the West Coast will be mostly quiet. A front will bring
areas of light snow to the Norton Sound and Seward Peninsula
tonight through tomorrow afternoon. A secondary front from a low
in the Bering will then bring light snow in St. Lawrence Island
Monday afternoon. Snowfall totals from both of these fronts will
be around 1 inch or less. A stronger front with gusty winds will
then graze St. Lawrence Island Tuesday evening into Wednesday. No
significant impacts are expected from this and no significant
weather is expected along the West Coast or in the Western
Interior through midweek.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
One change to the extended forecast is, our confidence in a strong
low in the Bering Sea by Wednesday/Thursday is dropping. However,
we still expect a low to develop and move into the Eastern Bering
by Thursday. There will be a plentiful amount of moisture with it,
so heavy precipitation is becoming more probable. But impactful
wind and coastal impacts are lessening in confidence. There are
still a lot of variables in play, but significant impacts are
becoming less probable.

&&

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ806.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ807-811>815-856>860.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812-814-815-860.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ813.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851-859.
     Gale Warning for PKZ857.
     Gale Warning for PKZ858.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.
&&

$$

Bianco